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Japón se desplaza hacia la recesión

JL Lopez — Thu, 19 May 2011 13:55:58 +0000

La economía de Japón se contrajo a un ritmo mucho peor de la esperado tasa de3,7% anualizado en el período enero-marzo. Dejando al país en una recesión por el terremoto del 11 de marzo y el tsunami que causó la disminución del gasto de consumo, la inversión empresarial y los inventarios del sector privado.

El artículo está aquí. No es peor de lo que esperaba, La lección simple es que los terremotos y los tsunamis son contractivas, no expansivas. Este es un ejemplo clásico de la teoría real del ciclo económico y la forma en que puede aplicarse también a las economías que estan , en algunos aspectos, todavía en los pasillos keynesianos.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704433204576331970084709938.html?mod=rss_economy

The 21 Countries Most Likely To Default

JL Lopez — Tue, 19 Apr 2011 12:17:33 +0000

#1 Greece

Image: ap

Cumulative Probability of Default: 57.7%

Current 5-year Mid CDS (bps): 1037.2

#2 Venezuela

Cumulative Probability of Default: 51.8%

Current 5-year Mid CDS (bps): 1008.9

#3 Ireland

Image: Wikimedia Commons

Cumulative Probability of Default: 43.0%

Current 5-year Mid CDS (bps): 656.9

#4 Portugal

Image: AP

Cumulative Probability of Default: 40.1%

Current 5-year Mid CDS (bps): 578.6

#5 Argentina

Image: AP

Cumulative Probability of Default: 34.7%

Current 5-year Mid CDS (bps): 584

#6 Ukraine

Image: AP

Cumulative Probability of Default: 27.7%

Current 5-year Mid CDS (bps): 445

#7 Dubai

Dubai’s exclusive Palm Jumeirah development

Image: AP

Cumulative Probability of Default: 24.7%

Current 5-year Mid CDS (bps): 402.7

#8 Lebanon

Image: AP

Cumulative Probability of Default: 21.9%

Current 5-year Mid CDS (bps): 345

#9 Iraq

Image: ap

Cumulative Probability of Default: 21.1%

Current 5-year Mid CDS (bps): 330.6

#10 Egypt

Image: ap

Cumulative Probability of Default: 21.1%

Current 5-year Mid CDS (bps): 331.0

#11 Bahrain

Cumulative Probability of Default: 20.3%

Current 5-year Mid CDS (bps): 315.3

#12 Vietnam

Cumulative Probability of Default: 20.3%

Current 5-year Mid CDS (bps): 316.1

#13 Spain

Image: AP

Cumulative Probability of Default: 18.9%

Current 5-year Mid CDS (bps): 233.1

#14 Hungary

Cumulative Probability of Default: 16.7%

Current 5-year Mid CDS (bps): 254.0

#15 Croatia

Cumulative Probability of Default: 15.5%

Current 5-year Mid CDS (bps): 236.4

#16 Romania

Image: AP

Cumulative Probability of Default: 15.3%

Current 5-year Mid CDS (bps): 231.1

#17 Latvia

Cumulative Probability of Default: 15.0%

Current 5-year Mid CDS (bps): 227.8

#18 Lithuania

Image: AP

Cumulative Probability of Default: 14.5%

Current 5-year Mid CDS (bps): 219

#19 India

Image: AP Images

Cumulative Probability of Default: 13.7%

Current 5-year Mid CDS (bps): 161.8

#20 Bulgaria

Cumulative Probability of Default: 13.5%

Current 5-year Mid CDS (bps): 203.1

#21 Italy

Image: AP

Cumulative Probability of Default: 12.5%

Current 5-year Mid CDS (bps): 149.5

Politics In 60 Seconds: What You Need To Know Right Now

JL Lopez — Mon, 18 Apr 2011 13:15:25 +0000

Good morning! Here’s what you need to know:

1. Relations between Saudi Arabia and The United States are “in crisis,” according to Foreign Policy magazine. “King Abdullah thinks the Obama administration’s love of universal freedoms is naive and inappropriate for conservative Gulf Arab states like Saudi Arabia and Bahrain, when the big threat is Iran.”

2. Relations between Pakistan and The United States have reached a new low. Jane Perlez reports that the dispute over CIA operations inside Pakistan signal a “fundamental rift.”

3. The State Department “has secretly financed Syrian political opposition groups and related projects, including a satellite TV channel that beams anti-government programming into the country, according to previously undisclosed diplomatic cables.” Full report is in The Washington Post.

4. Al Qaeda is emerging as a player in the “Arab Spring” sweeping the Middle East and North Africa. Juan Zarate sketches out the terror group’s opportunistic strategy.

5. The Financial Times reports: “An end to global monetary policy easing is on the horizon, with the US Federal Reserve set to signal it will cease asset purchases at the end of June.”

6. The Wall Street Journal reports: “Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said Republican leaders have assured the White House they are prepared to lift the debt ceiling in time to avoid disruptions to capital markets and a potential credit default.” It is unclear how Republican leaders can make such assurances.

7. Will the European Union come apart because of the ocean of bad debt threatening to engulf it? Wolfgang Munchau, who has emerged as the Boswell of the EU’s unraveling, says “no, not yet, they’ll keep delaying the reckoning.”

8. The “eurosceptic” True Finns party gained 34 seats in yesterday’s election in Finland. Every other political party lost seats. The Finnish balloting could doom the EU’s Portuguese bail-out package.

9. Sarah Palin, campaigning in Madison, Wisconsin over the weekend, unleashed a blistering attack on the Republican Congressional leadership for its “capitulation” to President Obama and the Democrats during the last round of budget negotiations.

10. Donald Trump told CNN’s Candy Crowley yesterday: “I’m a much bigger businessman and have a much, much bigger net worth. I mean my net worth is many, many, many times Mitt Romney.”
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Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/p-2011-4#ixzz1JsZHYw9g

Traducción

Buenos días! Esto es lo que necesita saber:

1. Las relaciones entre Arabia Saudita y Estados Unidos están “en crisis”, según la revista Foreign Policy. “El rey Abdullah piensa que el amor de la administración Obama de las libertades universales es ingenua e inapropiada para conservadores estados del Golfo Pérsico como Arabia Saudita y Bahrein, cuando la gran amenaza es Irán.”

2. Las relaciones entre Pakistán y Estados Unidos han alcanzado un nuevo mínimo. Jane informes Perlez que la disputa sobre las operaciones de la CIA dentro de Pakistán señal de una “ruptura fundamental”.

3. El Departamento de Estado “ha financiado en secreto sirio grupos de la oposición política y los proyectos relacionados, incluyendo un canal de televisión por satélite que transmite programación en contra del gobierno en el país, de acuerdo a los cables diplomáticos previamente no revelado.” El informe completo se encuentra en The Washington Post.

4. Al Qaeda se está convirtiendo en un jugador en la “primavera árabe” barrer el Oriente Medio y África del Norte. Juan Zárate esboza la estrategia oportunista del grupo terrorista.

5. El Financial Times informa: “El fin de aliviar la política monetaria mundial está en el horizonte, con la Reserva Federal de EE.UU. establece en la señal que dejará de compras de activos a finales de junio”.

6. El Wall Street Journal informa: “El secretario del Tesoro Timothy Geithner dijo que los líderes republicanos han asegurado a la Casa Blanca están dispuestos a levantar el techo de la deuda a tiempo para evitar interrupciones a los mercados de capital y un defecto potencial de crédito.” No está claro cómo los líderes republicanos pueden hacer esas garantías.

7. ¿La Unión Europea se separan por el océano de deudas incobrables que amenazan con hundir? Wolfgang Munchau, que ha surgido como el Boswell de desentrañar la UE, dice “no, todavía no, van a seguir retrasando el ajuste de cuentas”.

8. El “euroescéptico” verdadero partido finlandeses ganaron 34 escaños en las elecciones de ayer en Finlandia. Cada partido político perdieron escaños. La votación finlandés podría condenar portuguesa de la UE paquete de rescate.

9. Sarah Palin, la campaña en Madison, Wisconsin, el fin de semana, desató un ataque de ampollas en el liderazgo republicano del Congreso por su “capitulación” al Presidente Obama y los demócratas durante la última ronda de negociaciones sobre el presupuesto.

10. Donald Trump le dijo a la CNN Candy Crowley ayer: “Yo soy un hombre de negocios mucho más grande y tiene un valor mucho más grande red me refiero a mi patrimonio es muchas, muchas, muchas veces, Mitt Romney..”

El shock del futuro: China con 3 billones de dólares en las reservas, ¿Qué va a hacer con ellos?

JL Lopez — Sat, 16 Apr 2011 16:37:01 +0000

Transcribo pequeño estudio efectuado por varios de los principales medios de comunicación económicos sobre el posible destino de las elevedas reservas chinas.

Stories are flying about China’s $3 trillion reserves, with much speculation on how those reserves will be used. First let’s consider the setup.

Bloomberg reports China’s $3 Trillion Reserves Show G-20 Task as Wen Resists Yuan Pressure

China’s foreign-exchange reserves exceeded $3 trillion for the first time, highlighting global imbalances that Group of 20 finance chiefs aim to tackle at meetings in Washington.

China’s currency holdings, the world’s biggest, swelled by $197 billion in the first quarter to $3.04 trillion, the central bank said yesterday. New loans were a more-than-estimated 679.4 billion yuan ($104 billion) in March, it said.

Premier Wen Jiabao’s policy of controlling the currency, along with trade surpluses and flows of capital into the fastest-growing major economy, have boosted the reserves by $1 trillion in two years.

Hot Money Analysis

People’s Daily Online reports China’s forex reserves pass 3 trillion USD for first time

China’s foreign exchange reserves exceeded the mark of 3 trillion U.S. dollars for the first time at the end of March 2011, representing an increase of 24 percent from a year earlier and maintaining its top position around the world, according to data released by the central bank on April 14.

The foreign exchange reserves increased by 197 billion U.S. dollars in the first quarter.

China’s foreign exchange reserves were up by as high as 197 billion U.S. dollars in the first quarter of 2011 from 2.9 trillion U.S. dollars at the end of 2010, with 84 billion U.S. dollars in January, 60 billion U.S. dollars in February and 53 billion U.S. dollars in March.

According to the method released by the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) for estimating the amount of “hot money,” the flow of “hot money” is a result of subtracting the trade surplus, a net inflow of foreign direct investments (FDI) and overseas investment returns of the foreign exchange reserves from the increment in the foreign exchange reserves.

China recorded 1 billion U.S. dollars of trade deficit for the first quarter and 18 billion U.S. dollars of FDI for the first two months, the combined amount of which was 180 billion U.S. dollars lower than the 197 billion U.S. dollars of the quarterly increment in the foreign exchange reserves. This marks that the aggregate amount of FDI, overseas investment returns and “hot money” reached 180 billion U.S. dollars in March.

Experts said that given the limited amount of capital inflows, the surge in the foreign exchange reserves in the first quarter was the result of too much “hot money” inflow. The speculation on further RMB appreciation is fueling the “hot money” inflow.

What Does $3,045 Billion Buy?

The Financial Times asks What Does $3,045 Billion Buy These Days?

Italy. Principal and interest on the entire sovereign debt stock of il bel paese, going out to 2062, comes to $3,031bn. Or if China were after commodities, rather than countries, it could stash away 25bn barrels of Brent crude. Based on February’s consumption, that would satisfy almost 13 years of net oil imports. And how about companies? Assuming a civil 30 per cent takeover premium, Beijing could buy up America’s ten biggest listed firms, from ExxonMobil to JPMorgan, or the 15 biggest Euro-stocks, from BHP Billiton to Eni. For true value for money, though, China might want to browse a little closer to home. Its reserves managers could acquire the entire Nikkei 225, with $30bn in change.

Repatriation of Hot Money

That Financial Times speculation sounds nice but it does not work that way. For starters China must keep accumulated hot money reserves to allow for repatriation. Otherwise China would run the risk of a currency crisis.

Second, China already has a problem with soaring commodity costs. It does not need to accumulate more copper, aluminum, iron etc. Indeed China’s infrastructure is massively overbuilt already.

Third, even if China did buy copper and oil (say from from Australia and Iran respectively), what would Australia and Iran do with the dollars? Mathematically, the hot potato (US dollars), will eventually return to the US.

Fourth, China would want to keep several months or more of reserves in excess of reserves held for repatriation of hot money.

Future Shock a Mathematical Necessity

That still leaves a big chunk left, but certainly not the entire $3 trillion.

Here’s what will eventually happen, because it simply must work this way mathematically: With its US dollar reserves, China will buy USA assets, not Japanese equities, not Euro-based assets, not the Italian stock market or Italy’s national debt.

Likewise, with its Euro reserves, China will buy EuroZone assets, not Japanese equities, not US or Canadian assets.

China right now has its US reserves parked in US treasuries. The logical spot for some of those reserves is US corporations and US assets, returning the dollars where they mathematically must return.

Now imagine the shock in Congress were China to make an offer to buy Exxon-Mobile, Boeing, Apple and a basket of technology companies, and every toll-road and bridge in the country. If China wants gold, it could put in a bid for US mining companies.

At some point, such a shock will come. Mathematically it must.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com